Thursday, February 21, 2013

Inference to the best explanation

In philosophical reasoning inference to the best explanation means that your conclusion may or may not be correct. At this point placing James Forgety with the Pulaski, VA family seems like the most logical placement. This may turn out to be true of false? I laid out other possible parents earlier. A DNA test would rule out the Forgey family if one of the Forgetys would take the time to test. A $39 12 marker Y DNA test would be enough.
This is what we definitely know about James Forgety.

  1. He married in Hawkins County, TN on 18 March 1879. That is the earliest date we can find him there.
  2. In 1880 he is in Bristol, Washington County, VA. His likely brother Samuel was also in Washington County, VA in 1880. His likely brother John was in Bristol, Washington County, VA in 1900.
  3. In 1900 he is back in Hawkins County, TN living not far from Ellen Forgarty likely sister.
  4. We know he was not James Reynolds Forgey as he was previously identified as being. The above grave markers attest to the fact that James Forgety died in 1921 in Jefferson County, TN and James Reynolds Forgey died in neighboring Hamblen County, TN in 1936.
We still have the discrepancy regarding the fact that James Forgety always states his father was born in Tennessee. Another discrepancy is the fact that Ellen Fogarty of Hawkins County, TN is enumerated with a Sallie Fogarty in 1880 which I can't place.  It's possible this is actually Virginia? It's also possible Batholomew Forgaty remarried, and married someone named Sallie between 1870-1880? Below are the 1880 Census snippets for Sallie and Ellen 1880, Ellen 1900, Ellen 1910. Sallie disappears after 1880.

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